Getting started with POPPI Version 1.0 Care Services Efficiency Delivery Getting Started with POPPI POPPI, stands for Projecting Older People Population Information. It has been designed to give councils with social service responsibilities easy access to forecasts of the numbers and characteristics of older people in their locality. POPPI brings together all the relevant information for local authority planners and commissioners and provides a consistent starting point for Strategic Needs Assessment. POPPI has been developed by the Department of Health, CSED Programme with the Institute of Public Care, Oxford Brookes University. Remember that POPPI uses current status and trends from the Office of National Statistics. It does not forecast ‘expected’ future outcomes. In many cases, the service strategy will be driven by the need to deliver better outcomes than POPPI projects. [See ‘Using POPPI’ below.] Registering with POPPI Go to www.poppi.org.uk Choose 'Click here to register' You will be asked to submit an on-line form requesting the following details: • Name • Job title • Organisation • Office address • Phone number • Email address A unique password will be sent to your e-mail address. This, together with your email address as your username, will allow you access to POPPI from any computer. There is a "Have you forgotten your password?" facility available. Note that automatic registration is restricted to those with .gov and .nhs e-mail addresses. If the council wishes to provide access to users without a .gov or .nhs e- mail address [e.g. providers or contractors] this can be done manually if IPC receives a council e-mail with the appropriate authority. Choose 'Click here to send an email' from the login page. If there are any problems, call the IPC enquiry line on 01225 484088, Mondays to Fridays 9am to 5pm. CSED Demand Forecasting and Capacity Planning Page 1 Getting started with POPPI Version 1.0 What’s in POPPI? After logging in successfully you will be taken to the Welcome page and population forecast This shows the baseline population projection for your council. Note that for non-council users the results for England are displayed on the welcome screen. The following is an example of baseline population forecasts by age in POPPI: Notes on the source of the data appear in full underneath the table. On the left hand side of the screen, Population figure menu options lead to tables for: . Over 65 as a percentage of the total forecast population . Population forecast by gender and age band . Proportion by gender and age band . Ethnicity - Current ethnic group numbers and percentages If a county's figures are displayed, use the District menu top right to view figures for a particular district. The active menu button is highlighted. You can retrace your steps at any point. Local population characteristics POPPI also contains information for each district – usually from the 2001 census - showing the characteristics of the district in terms of: Living status Living alone Tenure Living in a care home No central heating CSED Demand Forecasting and Capacity Planning Page 2 Getting started with POPPI Version 1.0 Support arrangements Provision of unpaid care Unable to manage domestic tasks Unable to manage self-care Health Limiting long-term illness Use the ‘Apply calculations (single)’ button to apply these characteristics to the population projections. Some characteristics variables are analysed in two ways. These are shown in the ‘Apply calculations (multiple)’ pages: Tenure\illness Ethnicity\illness General health\unpaid care Unpaid care\age\hours These tables show how the characteristics are linked in the particular district. Applying the characteristics to the forecast of population by age gives a starting point for population analysis. We can expect the characteristics to change over time but the relative values – between districts – will persist in the medium-term. National prevalence information POPPI contains information from published research and surveys on the prevalence of health conditions that are likely to affect the care needs of the elderly population. The source of the data is described on each page and councils can make judgements about the relevance and validity of the information to their locality. These conditions are: Depression Severe depression Dementia Heart attack Stroke Bronchitis\emphysema Falls – A&E attendance Falls – hospital admissions Continence Visual impairment Mobility Obesity Use the ‘Apply calculations (single)’ button and select ‘Health’ then the appropriate condition to show the projected potential numbers of people affected by the condition locally. Local performance data POPPI contains a subset of the council PAF returns related to services for older people. The full set is available in the New KIGS system from Dr Foster Intelligence [DFI] with excellent graphics, comparator data and rankings on all parameters (see ‘Useful links’ on the screen menu). POPPI includes projections based on the latest 2005/06 returns of the numbers needing each service adjusted for the increase in population – if current rates as a CSED Demand Forecasting and Capacity Planning Page 3 Getting started with POPPI Version 1.0 proportion of the elderly population continue. The figures represent the potential demand – not the expected or, necessarily, the desired outcome. Projections are provided for numbers: Helped to live at home Intensive home care Community based services Supported residents in care homes Admissions to permanent residential and nursing care Carers receiving services Note that performance data is not available at District level. Data for other councils and national data On any page you can view the same information for another local authority or for England as a whole. To change authority, use the drop down list top right that shows CSSRs in alphabetical order. Choose the authority you wish to view and click Go. Facilities Clicking on Download, then Download this data in csv format offers the choice of: • Opening the current page of results in Excel. • Saving as a CSV file. POPPI creates a file of the type selected with the following titles and text: Authority name Table title Table figures and totals Source of data Excel spreadsheets can be used for analysis, chart and graph creation or insertion into a Word document for a report. The Print facility will print the current table of figures as a report but does not print the whole screen. The printed page includes the local authority name, the table title, figures, totals and source information plus "Population data is Crown copyright 2006". Using POPPI POPPI is designed to be flexible and easy to use. Whether the need is for a quick check on population forecasts or detailed development of service strategy, the information is readily available to council management and staff. Systems expertise and analytical skills are not required to access key data. Strategic Planning Applications POPPI projects at the total population level – not just service users – and is ideally suited to Strategic Needs Assessment [SNA]. If this is joint work [JSNA] with a coterminous PCT, NHS users can be registered and can access the common dataset. Care services provided by councils are often a residual element in the care of older people – after informal care and self-payers. Councils often have little information CSED Demand Forecasting and Capacity Planning Page 4 Getting started with POPPI Version 1.0 on informal care and self-payers and POPPI can help with the Strategic Gap Analysis. Understanding the total picture is an important element of JSNA and the interaction between publicly funded care, informal care and self-payment will be critical to managing future demand for care. POPPI can help to generate the assumption base for operational planning and demand monitoring – vital to detecting emerging trends in demand. Service strategy development involves understanding the range and prevalence of conditions and needs likely to be encountered in future. POPPI can provide an initial quantification of these needs as a baseline scenario. The download facility enables POPPI data to be downloaded to Excel as a basis for generating alternative scenarios varying assumptions or applying local knowledge. Commissioning Applications The capacity to understand and forecast future demand has increasingly been seen as an important component of commissioning as an activity across health and social care. POPPI offers Commissioners a practical and straightforward way to analyse population data, identify key characteristics within that population, project numbers into the future using census projections and compare future populations against performance data. Population based analysis will not indicate who will come forward for a service; it does form a valuable backdrop for service planning and demand management. • Indicating the prevalence of conditions, which may require a social care response, and understanding patterns of prevalence within the population. • Understanding strike rate, i.e. the numbers of people in particular circumstances or with particular conditions encountered by social care/health care/housing compared with their prevalence within the population. • Exploring the relationship between where populations are located and service and community facilities. • Helping to identify how many people there may be within a particular target population that a local authority should contact if it is attempting to move from a reactive to a proactive service, e.g. number of carers offering more than 50 hours care per week, where the carer is aged over 75. Future Applications POPPI appears at a time of significant changes in the field of health and social care. The system is intended to provide information for councils in a dynamic environment with changing population profiles and innovations in commissioning and consumer choice across the health economy. The Commissioning Framework for Health and Wellbeing [March 2007] sets out the issues and makes the case for creative responses. The users of POPPI will be the right people to identify the priorities for future development and CSED will be taking active steps to capture user feedback and identify opportunities for added-value enhancements. CSED Contact: Ray Beatty ray.beatty@dh.gsi.gov.uk CSED Demand Forecasting and Capacity Planning Page 5